Statistics in Medicine
Dynamic Predictions and Predictimands for Salvage Therapy in Recurrent Prostate Cancer Using Joint Models
ABSTRACT Prostate cancer patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) face a decision of whether to start salvage therapy (ST), which may reduce the probability of metastatic progression at the cost of side effects. To inform the decision to start ST at or after BCR, models that make counterfactual predictions incorporating treatment are highly desirable. However, estimation of such models using observational data requires care due to time‐varying confounding by the longitudinal biomarker prostate‐specific antigen (P …