Can River-Sea Connectivity Empower People-Oriented Development?

Vollständiger Abstract

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Using the construction of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines its effects on new-type urbanization with provincial panel data for 2011–2023. A staggered difference-in-differences model, double machine learning, and the synthetic control method are employed. The results show that corridor construction significantly improves the quality of provincial new-type urbanization, and the finding remains robust to parallel-trends tests, placebo tests, and alternative estimators. Mechanism tests indicate that the policy not only has a direct enabling effect but also operates through three channels: improved market access, industrial upgrading, and a narrower urban-rural income gap. The effects are stronger in southwestern provinces and provinces with higher initial urbanization, while the marginal impact is greater where financial development is initially lower. These findings provide evidence for coordinating transport-corridor development with people-oriented urbanization and offer policy implications for improving corridor efficiency, strengthening industrial support, and advancing regional coordination.