Policy-Oriented Land-Use Simulation for Saltmarsh Blue Carbon Optimization in Coastal Jiangsu, China

Vollständiger Abstract

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Land-use change and coastal wetland degradation are reshaping the spatial patterns of coastal blue carbon storage. Identifying how to enhance saltmarsh blue carbon (SBC) while balancing coastal development and ecological protection has become a key issue for coastal environmental management. Taking the Jiangsu coastal zone, China, as the study area, this study developed an integrated InVEST–GeoDetector–PLUS framework to assess carbon storage dynamics and saltmarsh blue carbon changes from 2000 to 2020, identify the driving factors of spatial differentiation, and simulate future responses of saltmarsh blue carbon storage (SBCS) from 2030 to 2050 under three scenarios: Natural Development (ND), Policy Regulation (PR), and Returning Farmland to Wetland (RFW). The results showed that total carbon storage in the Jiangsu coastal zone declined from 2000 to 2020, whereas SBCS continued to increase, indicating an asynchronous response between regional carbon storage and SBC. GeoDetector results identified Landuse and NDVI as the dominant drivers of SBC spatial differentiation, with their interaction substantially enhancing the explanatory power of blue carbon patterns. Future scenario simulations revealed clear differences among the three scenarios. Future scenario simulations showed that SBC fluctuated markedly under the ND scenario, with saltmarsh area decreasing by 89.84% during 2040–2050. The RFW scenario exhibited restoration potential but limited blue carbon gains in the later period, with saltmarsh area increasing by only 1.51%. In contrast, the PR scenario produced the most stable long-term blue carbon gain, with saltmarsh area increasing by 7.27% and SBCS increasing from 0.457 × 106 t to 0.490 × 106 t during 2040–2050. These findings suggest that policy regulation provides a more balanced pathway for maintaining land-use stability, controlling development pressure, and enhancing saltmarsh conservation. This study provides scientific evidence for saltmarsh protection, blue carbon enhancement, and blue carbon-oriented land-use management in rapidly developing coastal zones.