Landslide Hazard Assessment Based on a Spatial–Temporal–Magnitude Multiplicative Composite Index: A Case Study of Guiyang in China

Vollständiger Abstract

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Landslide hazard assessment provides an important basis for regional geological disaster prevention and mitigation. Landslide hazard is commonly characterized in terms of three fundamental dimensions: spatial occurrence, temporal occurrence, and potential magnitude. Based on this conceptual framework, Guiyang, a typical mountainous city in western China, was selected as the study area, and slope units were adopted as the basic assessment units. First, eight topographic, geological, and hydrological conditioning factors were incorporated into an information-value model to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of each slope unit. The resulting min–max-normalized susceptibility index was used as the spatial susceptibility component. Second, the historical landslide inventory was combined with kernel density estimation, and a Poisson-based exceedance probability model was used to estimate the model-based exceedance probability of one or more landslides occurring in each slope unit under a 10-year scenario time window. This probability was used as the temporal component. Third, the potential landslide volume of each slope unit was predicted using machine-learning algorithms. The predicted small-, medium-, and large-volume classes were assigned ordinal magnitude weights of 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and were used as the magnitude component. Finally, the three components were integrated using a multiplicative composite index to obtain the relative landslide hazard of each slope unit. The results were as follows. The overall landslide hazard in Guiyang was dominated by medium and low hazard levels. Furthermore, 422 high-hazard slope units were identified, accounting for 15.58% of all slope units. These units were mainly concentrated in the central and northern regions. In terms of administrative divisions, Xifeng County, Kaiyang County, Xiuwen County, Qingzhen city, and Huaxi district ranked among the top five administrative regions with the most high-hazard slope units. Therefore, these regions should be considered key areas for disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the hazard zonation, 21 selected high-hazard slopes were examined using UAV imagery and on-site inspection to document their representative geomorphological and deformation characteristics. The observations provided qualitative field support for the geological plausibility of selected high-hazard predictions. The findings of this study provide an important decision-making basis for landslide mitigation efforts by the Guiyang Municipal Government.