Institutional Policy Support Toward Climate Actions: Implications for Adaptation and Productivity of Maize-Based Farming Households in Nigeria

Vollständiger Abstract

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This study investigates the role of institutional policy support in enhancing climate adaptation strategies and maize productivity among smallholder farming households in Southwest Nigeria, a region critical for maize production yet vulnerable to climate variability. Employing a household-level data approach, data were collected from maize-based households across six states using questionnaires and interviews, supplemented by secondary climate and policy records. We employed a multivariate probit (MVP) regression with instrumental variable correction, addressing endogeneity in institutional support variables. Bayesian linear regression modeled maize yield as a function of institutional support, incorporating weakly informative priors and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for posterior estimation. The Bayesian approach provides full posterior distributions and credible intervals, facilitates probabilistic interpretation of policy effects, improves estimation stability in the presence of multicollinearity, and enables rigorous sensitivity. Model robustness was evaluated via Bayesian fit metrics and sensitivity analysis with bootstrap resampling across prior types. Multivariate probit regression identifies institutional support, credit, irrigation, market access, and road infrastructure as key drivers of adaptation strategy adoption, modulated by socioeconomic (gender, experience) and farm-specific factors (farm size). Bayesian linear regression confirms significant yield impacts from institutional variables. Subgroup analysis indicates greater benefits for large farms over small farms, with gender-neutral impacts. While institutional support significantly boosts adaptation and productivity, gaps in irrigation access, climate information, and smallholder targeting limit equitable outcomes. The findings advocate for enhanced infrastructure, financial incentives, and tailored policies to strengthen climate resilience and food security, aligning with Nigeria’s climate goals and the Sustainable Development Goals.