Pretreatment Ki67-to-ADC Ratio Predicts Prognosis in Breast Cancer Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Vollständiger Abstract

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(1) Background: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is important for breast cancer, but prognosis varies widely. Ki67 and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) reflect proliferation and cellularity, respectively. This study evaluated the prognostic value of the Ki67/ADC ratio (KA) and post-treatment ADC change (δADC) in breast cancer patients receiving NAC, and developed a survival prediction model incorporating these indicators. (2) Methods: Two cohorts of breast cancer patients treated with NAC were collected. Pre- and post-treatment breast MRI with diffusion-weighted imaging were obtained; ADC values were measured by two blinded radiologists. KA was calculated as pre-treatment Ki67 divided by pre-treatment ADC, and δADC as post-ADC minus pre-ADC. Disease-free survival (DFS) was the primary outcome. Cox regression and a predictive Cox model were used. (3) Results: A total of 419 patients were analyzed. Both KA and δADC were associated with survival. In multivariable analysis, KA remained an independent prognostic factor (HR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19–0.84, p = 0.015). High KA was associated with worse prognosis, particularly in patients without pathological complete response. The model incorporating KA showed better predictive performance than clinicopathological variables alone and effectively stratified high- vs. low-risk patients. (4) Conclusion: KA is a promising complementary biomarker for prognosis in breast cancer patients undergoing NAC. Its integration into a prognostic model improved survival risk prediction and may aid individualized post-treatment management.