Impact-based drought forecasting for agro-pastoralists in the Horn of Africa drylands

Vollständiger Abstract

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Drought currently threatens the food security of 26 million people in the Horn of Africa, and without urgent action this could have a devastating impact during the first half of 2022. Local agro-pastoralists living in the Horn of Africa drylands are among the most vulnerable people to these droughts. Drought forecasts are crucial for them to prepare, as these allow for life-saving forecast-based actions. However, there is a mismatch between forecasts and the impacts felt on the ground leading to local agro-pastoralists not using these forecasts.Therefore, we will develop and evaluate impact-based forecasting techniques for agro-pastoralists in the Horn of Africa using the TAMSAT-ALERT early-warning system. Over Kenya, these ensemble forecasts indicate a good relationship to pasture availability (NDVI/VCI) and maize yield, and can reliably anticipate drought conditions (