Burden and trends of mental disorders in Vietnam, 1990–2023: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Vollständiger Abstract

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Objectives: This study evaluated the epidemiological burden and temporal trends of mental disorders in Vietnam from 1990 to 2023 and projected the future burden through 2040.Methods: Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 data were used to analyze the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDAR) by age, sex, and diagnostic subtype. Temporal trends were quantified using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and Pearson correlation analysis examined associations with Vietnam’s human development index (HDI). Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) models were used to forecast the burden through 2040.Results: In 2023, approximately 9.1 million individuals in Vietnam had mental disorders, with 2.94 million annual incident cases and 1.41 million disability-adjusted life-years. Depressive disorders ranked highest across all metrics, and females consistently had higher age-standardized rates than males. Age-standardized rates increased significantly from 1990 to 2023: ASIR, 1.10% EAPC (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87%–1.33%); ASPR, 0.27% EAPC (95% CI, 0.21%–0.33%); and ASDAR, 0.52% EAPC (95% CI, 0.46%–0.58%). Mental disorder burden was strongly positively correlated with HDI (r=0.773–0.909, all p