Impact of climate change on the epidemiology of plant diseases

Vollständiger Abstract

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Climate change is increasingly recognized as a major driver of plant disease dynamics worldwide, altering environmental conditions that govern host–pathogen–environment interactions. This study aimed to synthesize current scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on the epidemiology of plant diseases through an integrative literature review. A systematic search was conducted between March and April 2026 using the Web of Science, Scopus, SciELO, PubMed/MEDLINE, and CAPES Journal Portal databases. Peer-reviewed articles published between 2016 and 2026 in English or Portuguese were screened according to predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, resulting in the selection of 17 studies for qualitative analysis. The findings demonstrated that climatic factors, particularly temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration, relative humidity, precipitation patterns, and leaf wetness duration, significantly influence pathogen survival, reproduction, dispersal, infection efficiency, and disease severity. Temperature emerged as the most influential variable; however, its effects varied substantially among pathosystems, reflecting differences in pathogen biology and host responses. The reviewed studies also indicated that climate change is facilitating the emergence and geographic expansion of plant pathogens into previously unsuitable regions, thereby increasing phytosanitary risks for economically important crops. Furthermore, altered climatic conditions may compromise the effectiveness of conventional disease management strategies, highlighting the need for adaptive approaches. The evidence underscores the importance of integrating epidemiological surveillance, predictive modeling, climate-informed risk assessment, host resistance breeding, and integrated disease management into agricultural adaptation frameworks. Future research should prioritize multidisciplinary approaches to improve the prediction and mitigation of climate-driven disease outbreaks under diverse agroecological conditions.