The Most Important Predictors of Father Involvement Among Politically Conservative Men: An Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Approach

Vollständiger Abstract

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Background: Little is known about the parenting experiences and involvement of politically conservative fathers. Understanding factors predictive of father involvement in this population can inform fatherhood programs and family policies. Purpose: Guided by a heuristic model of the ecology of father-child relationships, this study explored the most important predictors of father involvement among politically conservative fathers. Methods: Data came from a national online survey of fathers who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election ( N = 367). Father involvement with children in the past year served as the outcome. Twenty-seven variables on men’s beliefs about the role of fathers, masculinity, mental health, political decision style, and sociodemographic characteristics served as predictors. Random forest was employed, combined with Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), in accordance with explainable artificial intelligence best practices. Results: Men’s beliefs about fathering, family functioning, life satisfaction, and paternal status centrality were the strongest predictors and showed positive associations with predicted father involvement. Masculinity-related variables showed moderate importance, whereas sociodemographics (e.g., fathers’ race, education, region, religion, urbanicity) showed minimal influence. Conclusion: Among politically conservative men, beliefs about fatherhood and psychosocial well-being were some of the most important predictors of father involvement with children in the past year. Findings highlight the relevance of paternal identity-based processes and healthy family contexts for understanding and supporting father involvement in politically conservative populations.