Perceived Uncertainty in the Delays and Outcomes of Future Events

Vollständiger Abstract

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Future events are inherently uncertain in terms of possible delays and outcomes. The perception and estimation of such uncertainty might not only affect the construal of future events but also play a critical role in intertemporal preference. This article presents one interview and two vignette studies that examined how people perceive and estimate the uncertainty in the delays and outcomes of future events, as well as their interrelationships in the gain and loss domains. It was found that the perceived distributions of future delays tended to be positively skewed for both gains and losses, whereas the perceived distributions of future outcomes tended to follow asymmetric distributions as well, but different scenarios and measuring methods might lead to different measured directions of perceived skewness. Furthermore, for both gains and losses, anticipated (i.e., the estimated most likely) delays and outcomes are positively associated with the range (i.e., the level of perceived uncertainty) of the relevant estimates, respectively. Finally, the estimation of outcomes is often contingent on estimated delays in terms of possible outcomes, their range, and the shape of the relevant distribution. Overall, this research presents a richer and more comprehensive picture of perceived uncertainty in the delays and outcomes of future events. More broadly, the current findings have significant theoretical and empirical implications for understanding and improving human judgment, estimation, and intertemporal decisions in general. Future research on intertemporal preference should incorporate this long-overlooked picture to generate more realistic stimuli for a better understanding of the cognitive and affective mechanisms underlying real-life intertemporal decisions.