Visions of Gulf Security in an Era of Uncertainty: Between External Alignment and Regional Autonomy

Vollständiger Abstract

Worum geht es in dieser Arbeit?

Abstract This article examines the evolution of Gulf security architecture in the context of the Iran War and the growing uncertainty over the long‐term role of the United States as principal external security guarantor of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states. It analyzes the long‐standing debates over alternative security arrangements, including GCC‐centered defense integration, broader mechanisms of cooperative security, and more novel options like a regional nonaggression framework. The study demonstrates that the GCC has never been an effective collective defense institution due to enduring structural constraints and a range of exogenous and endogenous factors: aversion to ceding sovereignty to a supranational body; major differences across the member states; smaller members’ fears of domination by Saudi Arabia; and the complexities inherent in military integration. The findings indicate that, despite the crisis precipitated by the Iran War, the structural obstacles that historically prevented the emergence of an autonomous Gulf security and defense arrangement remain largely intact.