Simulating the effects of an alcohol minimum unit price policy on distilled spirits sales in 28 states of the USA

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Abstract Background and aims Excessive alcohol use is a leading preventable chronic disease risk factor. Alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) policies are not used in the United States despite evidence of associations with reduced drinking and alcohol‐related harms. To inform potential population‐level chronic disease prevention strategies, we estimated effects of various hypothetical MUPs on alcohol sales. Method Simulation based on observational time‐series data. We used weekly off‐premises product‐specific alcohol retail sales and prices in 28 states of the United States for November 2022–November 2023 from NielsenIQ to estimate the own‐price elasticity of spirits and cross‐price elasticities of wine, beer and ready‐to‐drinks with respect to spirits. Using estimated elasticities, we simulated changes in total alcohol sales associated with hypothetical spirits MUPs ranging from $0.10 to $1.10 per standard drink (0.6 fluid ounces of alcohol). Results A hypothetical MUP of $0.80 per standard drink on spirits yielded the largest estimated decrease in alcohol sales (−1.7%) and would affect 5374 of 26 249 spirits products. To reach the $0.80 MUP, the sales‐weighted average price increase among affected products was $0.24 per drink. Conclusions Minimum unit pricing policies on distilled spirits in the United States could shift purchasing behavior and help reduce alcohol‐related harms.