Weathering the storm: Most maternal and environmental drivers of individual reproductive success do not scale up to population recruitment in a large herbivore

Vollständiger Abstract

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Abstract Population growth depends upon individual survival and reproduction, but do drivers of individual reproductive success scale up to population recruitment? Factors affecting individuals may have little effect on population dynamics if individuals within a population experience different conditions. When seasonal resource availability is unpredictable and breeding season long, average conditions over a breeding cycle may poorly reflect the environment experienced by many individuals. We compared the drivers of individual reproductive success and population recruitment in an asynchronously breeding large herbivore, the eastern grey kangaroo ( Macropus giganteus ). We analysed 18 years of individual‐based data using multivariate hierarchical Bayesian models to first identify the causal mechanisms relating population density, environmental conditions and maternal traits to individual success. We then assessed whether the drivers of individual reproductive success scaled up to determine population recruitment. Most maternal and environmental covariates strongly influenced individual reproductive success, with distinct effects on juvenile survival before and after pouch exit. Maternal traits had a greater influence in the pouch, whereas environmental conditions became increasingly important once young exited the pouch. Most drivers of individual reproductive success did not affect population recruitment. Recruitment increased with population density and mean body condition of adult females. Weather harshness had a weak positive effect on recruitment, which appeared independent of female age structure, previous recruitment or forage. Most drivers of individual reproductive success did not scale up to population recruitment. Birth asynchrony could buffer population recruitment against environmental variation such that variables affecting individual reproduction have little impact at the population level. Large herbivores that reproduce asynchronously may therefore be more resilient to environmental variability than synchronous breeders.