A systematic review and network meta-analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with oral submucous fibrosis risk

Vollständiger Abstract

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Background: Oral submucous fibrosis (OSF) is a chronic and insidious oral disease characterized by hyalinization of the subepithelial connective tissue and progressive fibrosis of the oral submucosa. It is a precancerous condition of oral squamous cell carcinoma. Studies have demonstrated that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are closely associated with susceptibility to OSF. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the association between SNPs and OSF risk and to rank the strength of the association between different genetic models and OSF susceptibility. Methods: Literature related to OSF was comprehensively searched from PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, and Wangfang databases up to July 2025. Full-text case-control studies with patients diagnosed with OSF were included. Quality assessment was performed to evaluate the risk of bias. RevMan 5.4, GeMTC 0.14.3, and STATA 17.0 were used for the pairwise and Bayesian network meta-analysis. Results: A total of 24 studies with 2545 cases and 3772 controls, covering 13 SNPs in 11 genes, were included in our meta-analysis. We found that CYP1A1 rs4646903:T>C, CYP1A1 rs1048943:A>G, GSTT1 null genotype, GSTM1 null genotype, and XRCC3 rs861539:C>T were associated with an increased risk of OSF, while MMP2 rs243865:C>T and MMP3 rs3025058: 5A>6A were associated with a decreased risk of OSF. Further Bayesian network meta-analysis indicated the top 5 genetic models with the highest association with OSF risk in network group 1 were the dominant model, homozygous model, allelic model, and recessive model of CYP1A1 rs1048943:A>G (ranked 1–4), and the heterozygous/dominant model of CYP1A1 rs4646903:T>C (both ranked 5). While the allelic models of XRCC3 rs861539:C>T and MMP3 rs3025058: 5A>6A ranked first for predicting OSF in group 2 and group 3, respectively. Conclusion: Some specific SNPs are significantly related to the risk of OSF. Among them, the dominant model of CYP1A1 rs1048943:A>G may be the most strongly associated genetic model with OSF risk. Future large-sample, well-designed studies with detailed genotype data are needed to validate the roles of these SNPs in OSF risk.