Global, Regional, and National Burden of Neural Tube Defects and Digestive Congenital Anomalies in Newborns, 1990–2021, With Projections to 2050: Results From the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Vollständiger Abstract

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Abstract Objective: To provide global, regional, and national estimates of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for neural tube defects (NTDs) and digestive congenital anomalies (DCAs) from 1990 to 2021, with projections to 2050, to inform resource allocation and identify high-burden populations. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed the burden of NTDs and DCAs through descriptive and trend analyses. Age-standardized rates were examined by sex, age, region, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Future trends were forecast using exponential smoothing and ARIMA models. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the global burden of NTDs and DCAs declined. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of NTDs decreased from 2.94 to 1.95, while the ASIR of DCAs fell from 8.09 to 7.42. DALYs for both conditions also declined. Females consistently had higher ASIRs and age-standardized DALY rates than males, with the largest burden in children under 5 years. Low SDI regions experienced the highest burden, while high-middle SDI regions saw the fastest decline. Projections indicate a continued decrease in the burden of NTDs and DCAs through 2050. Conclusion: Although the global burden of NTDs and DCAs has decreased over the past three decades, substantial disparities persist, particularly among women and populations in low-SDI regions. These findings highlight the need for targeted public health initiatives, optimized allocation of healthcare resources, and strengthened monitoring and intervention measures to reduce disparities in the disease burden of birth defects.