Risk Prognostication After Hypomethylating Agents Combined With Venetoclax in AML: The PRISM Risk Model

Vollständiger Abstract

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PURPOSE As risk stratification for patients with AML treated with lower-intensity venetoclax-based therapy remains suboptimal, we developed and validated a prognostic model integrating clinical, cytogenetic, and molecular features. METHODS We assembled a multinational data set comprising 2,092 adults with newly diagnosed AML treated with hypomethylating agents plus venetoclax (HMA + VEN). One thousand nine hundred eighteen patients with complete data were randomly divided into training (70%) and internal validation (30%) cohorts. Two independent external validation cohorts were assembled (n = 500 and n = 222). Modeling overall survival (OS), Elastic Net regression was applied in 1,000 bootstrap samples from the training cohort to select variables for a Ridge regression, which generated a continuous Prognostic Risk Integration for Survival Modeling (PRISM) score and risk categories based on tertiles (PRISM-3: low, moderate, high). These PRISM indices were then computed for the validation cohorts and compared with the 4-gene classifier (based on mutations in FLT3 -ITD, N/KRAS , and TP53 ). RESULTS PRISM integrated 17 clinical and genomic variables and demonstrated a linear association with OS. PRISM-3 stratified survival consistently across all cohorts (median OS: 25.1-28.8 months for low risk, 12.5-14.7 months for moderate risk, and 5.8-6.7 months for high risk; P < .001). Compared with the 4-gene classifier, PRISM-3 reassigned approximately 40% of patients (and >50% of those with favorable risk) and demonstrated significantly better discrimination in validation cohorts (C-index 0.63-0.65 v 0.59-0.61; P < .05). CONCLUSION PRISM is a validated prognostic model for patients with AML receiving HMA + VEN that improves survival risk stratification beyond current standard tools and supports individualized, risk-adapted clinical decision making. The model, the PRISM-AML Risk Calculator, is publicly available.